V-Lab
Warehouses De Pauw CVA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
1,344.66
increased by 7.61
1 Week
1,344.74
increased by 7.69
1 Month
1,344.43
increased by 7.38
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 06:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 25, 1999 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.8106 | 6.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0978 | 8.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8640 | 39.76*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.0212 | 3.39*** |
| γ2 | -0.0326 | -3.68*** |
| γ3 | 0.0349 | 5.70*** |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
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