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V-Lab

Warehouses De Pauw CVA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

1,344.66

increased by 7.61

1 Week

1,344.74

increased by 7.69

1 Month

1,344.43

increased by 7.38

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 06:13 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Warehouses De Pauw CVA ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 25, 1999 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.8106
6.15***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0978
8.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8640
39.76***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ10.0212
3.39***
γ2-0.0326
-3.68***
γ30.0349
5.70***

Persistence:

0.962

Half-life:

18 days