Skip to main content
V-Lab

Warehouses De Pauw CVA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

1,145.78

increased by 74.89

1 Week

1,086.18

increased by 15.29

1 Month

1,091.46

increased by 20.57

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 08:59 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Warehouses De Pauw CVA ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 25, 1999 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.1435
5.00***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0946
8.13***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8809
50.90***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0024
0.67
γ20.0021
0.38

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

28 days