Warehouses De Pauw CVA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
1,145.78
increased by 74.89
1 Week
1,086.18
increased by 15.29
1 Month
1,091.46
increased by 20.57
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 08:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 25, 1999 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.1435 | 5.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0946 | 8.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8809 | 50.90*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0024 | 0.67 |
| γ2 | 0.0021 | 0.38 |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
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