V-Lab
BXP Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
154.65
decreased by 8.45
1 Week
172.13
increased by 9.03
1 Month
186.23
increased by 23.13
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 18, 1997 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 245 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~245 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1870 | 7.02*** |
| αARCH | 0.0715 | 14.78*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9256 | 195.57*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0017 | 1.23 |
0.997
Persistence245d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1870 | 7.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0715 | 14.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9256 | 195.57*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0017 | 1.23 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
245 days
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