V-Lab
Covivio Hotels SACA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
1,313,887.00
decreased by 165,620.00
1 Week
1,468,012.60
decreased by 11,494.40
1 Month
1,183,025.40
decreased by 296,481.60
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 06:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 30, 1996 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.7541 | 5.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1672 | 10.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7758 | 36.43*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.2136 | -2.23** |
| γ2 | 0.3967 | 2.58*** |
| γ3 | -0.1581 | -1.62 |
| γ4 | -0.0372 | -0.56 |
| γ5 | 0.0457 | 0.91 |
| γ6 | -0.0784 | -1.36 |
| γ7 | 0.1483 | 1.54 |
Persistence:
0.943
Half-life:
12 days
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