V-Lab
Simon Property Group Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
30.66
decreased by 0.73
1 Week
30.68
decreased by 0.71
1 Month
29.32
decreased by 2.07
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 14, 1993 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1537 trading days (~6.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1451 | 8.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0535 | 12.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9460 | 217.83*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0001 | -0.02 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1537 days
Other Simon Property Group Inc Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on Real Estate