Altarea SCA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
11,968.00
decreased by 504.06
1 Week
13,626.47
increased by 1,154.41
1 Month
12,369.64
decreased by 102.42
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 10:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 19, 1991 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.9930 | 2.44** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1270 | 9.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8269 | 30.43*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.1390 | 2.62*** |
| γ2 | -0.1807 | -2.62*** |
| γ3 | 0.1155 | 4.37*** |
| γ4 | -0.1529 | -6.21*** |
Persistence:
0.954
Half-life:
15 days
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