V-Lab
Altarea SCA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
14,108.88
decreased by 46.90
1 Week
14,842.18
increased by 686.40
1 Month
13,479.27
decreased by 676.51
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 06:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 19, 1991 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.9857 | 2.44** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1270 | 9.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8268 | 30.43*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.1379 | 2.62*** |
| γ2 | -0.1791 | -2.61*** |
| γ3 | 0.1145 | 4.33*** |
| γ4 | -0.1524 | -6.11*** |
Persistence:
0.954
Half-life:
15 days
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