V-Lab
Vitura SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
86,879,400.00
decreased by 5,014,460.00
1 Week
96,636,836.00
increased by 4,742,976.00
1 Month
128,846,613.33
increased by 36,952,753.33
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 06:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 28, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2067 | 4.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1136 | 6.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8083 | 25.43*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0305 | 0.16 |
| γ2 | -0.2262 | -0.76 |
| γ3 | 0.7081 | 3.15*** |
| γ4 | -1.2703 | -6.62*** |
| γ5 | 1.4676 | 6.80*** |
| γ6 | -1.1423 | -4.21*** |
| γ7 | 1.0492 | 2.44** |
| γ8 | -1.0274 | -1.67* |
| γ9 | 0.5642 | 0.98 |
| γ10 | -0.5156 | -0.97 |
Persistence:
0.922
Half-life:
9 days
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