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V-Lab

Vitura SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

51,742,390.00

increased by 10,372,340.00

1 Week

40,889,452.00

decreased by 480,598.00

1 Month

43,830,358.57

increased by 2,460,308.57

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 08:22 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Vitura SA ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 28, 2006 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.2052
4.79***
αARCH0.1123
6.52***
βGARCH0.8161
26.48***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.0062
0.03
γ2-0.1726
-0.58
γ30.6405
2.81***
γ4-1.1989
-6.23***
γ51.4244
6.67***
γ6-1.1384
-4.35***
γ71.0818
2.61***
γ8-1.1105
-1.84*
γ90.7044
1.19
γ10-0.9028
-1.80*

0.928

Persistence

9d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2052
4.79***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1123
6.52***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8161
26.48***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.0062
0.03
γ2-0.1726
-0.58
γ30.6405
2.81***
γ4-1.1989
-6.23***
γ51.4244
6.67***
γ6-1.1384
-4.35***
γ71.0818
2.61***
γ8-1.1105
-1.84*
γ90.7044
1.19
γ10-0.9028
-1.80*

Persistence:

0.928

Half-life:

9 days