V-Lab
Vitura SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
51,742,390.00
increased by 10,372,340.00
1 Week
40,889,452.00
decreased by 480,598.00
1 Month
43,830,358.57
increased by 2,460,308.57
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 08:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 28, 2006 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2052 | 4.79*** |
| αARCH | 0.1123 | 6.52*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8161 | 26.48*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0062 | 0.03 |
| γ2 | -0.1726 | -0.58 |
| γ3 | 0.6405 | 2.81*** |
| γ4 | -1.1989 | -6.23*** |
| γ5 | 1.4244 | 6.67*** |
| γ6 | -1.1384 | -4.35*** |
| γ7 | 1.0818 | 2.61*** |
| γ8 | -1.1105 | -1.84* |
| γ9 | 0.7044 | 1.19 |
| γ10 | -0.9028 | -1.80* |
0.928
Persistence9d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2052 | 4.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1123 | 6.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8161 | 26.48*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0062 | 0.03 |
| γ2 | -0.1726 | -0.58 |
| γ3 | 0.6405 | 2.81*** |
| γ4 | -1.1989 | -6.23*** |
| γ5 | 1.4244 | 6.67*** |
| γ6 | -1.1384 | -4.35*** |
| γ7 | 1.0818 | 2.61*** |
| γ8 | -1.1105 | -1.84* |
| γ9 | 0.7044 | 1.19 |
| γ10 | -0.9028 | -1.80* |
Persistence:
0.928
Half-life:
9 days
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