Vitura SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
111,651,300.00
decreased by 8,328,400.00
1 Week
128,093,060.00
increased by 8,113,360.00
1 Month
137,794,248.89
increased by 17,814,548.89
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 10:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 28, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2071 | 4.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1150 | 6.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8044 | 24.92*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0319 | 0.17 |
| γ2 | -0.2424 | -0.81 |
| γ3 | 0.7463 | 3.30*** |
| γ4 | -1.3148 | -6.77*** |
| γ5 | 1.4957 | 6.79*** |
| γ6 | -1.1478 | -4.12*** |
| γ7 | 1.0396 | 2.36** |
| γ8 | -1.0001 | -1.62 |
| γ9 | 0.5295 | 0.94 |
| γ10 | -0.4721 | -0.92 |
Persistence:
0.919
Half-life:
8 days
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