Vitura SA ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
157,680,100.00
1 Week
162,616,440.00
1 Month
158,885,966.67
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 10:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 28, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 3423 trading days (~13.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0328 | 0.96 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9773 | 575.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0206 | -0.33 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 1.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9909 | 164.01*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
3423 days
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