V-Lab
Vitura SA ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
89,503,520.00
1 Week
89,373,492.00
1 Month
105,598,503.81
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 08:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 28, 2006 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 2858 trading days (~11.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 126 | |
| αARCH | 0.0341 | 7.84*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9760 | 247.66*** |
| γleverage | -0.0207 | -2.27** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0000 | 0.09 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9909 | 109.38*** |
1.000
Persistence2858d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0341 | 7.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9760 | 247.66*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0207 | -2.27** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.09 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9909 | 109.38*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
2858 days
Other Vitura SA Analyses
Other ILLIQ-MFMEM Analyses on Real Estate