V-Lab
Warehouses De Pauw CVA ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
1,164.77
1 Week
1,161.95
1 Month
1,166.56
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 06:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 25, 1999 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0994 | 1.02 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8149 | 29.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0994 | -0.47 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.1406 | 2.13** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0240 | 1.19 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9748 | 156.71*** |
Persistence:
0.865
Half-life:
5 days
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