AvalonBay Communities Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
93.09
1 Week
89.29
1 Month
82.60
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 10:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 11, 1994 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0687 | 1.77* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8716 | 42.73*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0687 | -0.65 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.3577 | 3.28*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0735 | 1.76* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9205 | 10.20*** |
Persistence:
0.906
Half-life:
7 days
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