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Sinpas Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi AS ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
320.70
1 Week
357.97
1 Month
290.88
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 2353 trading days (~9.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1837 | 1.08 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7321 | 52.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1677 | 0.53 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.04 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2231 | 3.66*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7769 | 4.46*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
2353 days
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