Sinpas Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi AS ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
307.62
1 Week
297.14
1 Month
262.23
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 04:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2007 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 2345 trading days (~9.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1838 | 1.08 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7321 | 52.23*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1675 | 0.53 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.04 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2220 | 3.65*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7780 | 4.51*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
2345 days
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