V-Lab
Sinpas Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi AS Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
331.95
decreased by 56.80
1 Week
353.70
decreased by 35.05
1 Month
300.53
decreased by 88.22
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 69314 trading days (~275.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7626 | 1.59 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1719 | 0.06 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8281 | 0.30 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0931 | -0.15 |
| γ2 | 0.0559 | 0.07 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
69314 days
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