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Sinpas Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi AS Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
194.13
decreased by 29.25
1 Week
219.82
decreased by 3.56
1 Month
243.18
increased by 19.80
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 03:54 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2007 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 5975 trading days (~23.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~5975 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8424 | 5.00*** |
| αARCH | 0.1708 | 12.48*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8291 | 60.40*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0574 | -5.36*** |
1.000
Persistence5975d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8424 | 5.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1708 | 12.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8291 | 60.40*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0574 | -5.36*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
5975 days
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