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Sinpas Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi AS Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

322.39

increased by 26.93

1 Week

310.79

increased by 15.33

1 Month

266.94

decreased by 28.52

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Sinpas Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi AS ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 22, 2007 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7615
0.96
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1719
0.03
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8281
0.17
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.0951
-0.07
γ20.0577
0.03

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

99021 days