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Sinpas Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi AS Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

331.95

decreased by 56.80

1 Week

353.70

decreased by 35.05

1 Month

300.53

decreased by 88.22

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Sinpas Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi AS ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 22, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 69314 trading days (~275.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7626
1.59
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1719
0.06
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8281
0.30
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.0931
-0.15
γ20.0559
0.07

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

69314 days