NSI NV Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
12,409.32
increased by 669.30
1 Week
11,941.72
increased by 201.70
1 Month
11,887.12
increased by 147.10
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 02:40 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 258 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9294 | 2.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0538 | 9.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9435 | 143.15*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0023 | 0.94 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
258 days
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