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V-Lab

NSI NV Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

10,736.61

decreased by 398.26

1 Week

11,219.77

increased by 84.90

1 Month

11,605.40

increased by 470.53

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:05 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of NSI NV ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 3, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 264 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.9217
2.96***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0537
9.79***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9436
143.76***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0022
0.86

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

264 days