V-Lab
NSI NV Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
10,736.61
decreased by 398.26
1 Week
11,219.77
increased by 84.90
1 Month
11,605.40
increased by 470.53
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 264 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9217 | 2.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0537 | 9.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9436 | 143.76*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0022 | 0.86 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
264 days
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