V-Lab
Hedge Logistica Fundo de Investimento Imobiliario Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
677,627.80
decreased by 8.00
1 Week
668,809.26
decreased by 8,826.54
1 Month
616,548.68
decreased by 61,087.12
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 5, 2020 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 57762 trading days (~229.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0199 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 1.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -18.1083 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | 44.6356 | 1.81* |
| γ3 | -35.9431 | -1.60 |
| γ4 | 9.3297 | 0.44 |
| γ5 | 4.5331 | 0.21 |
| γ6 | -10.0632 | -0.48 |
| γ7 | 6.7695 | 0.30 |
| γ8 | 0.4069 | 0.02 |
| γ9 | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
57762 days
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