Immobiliare Grande Distribuzione SIIQ SpA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, October 27th, 2026
1 Day
55,336.21
decreased by 4,991.36
1 Week
57,895.20
decreased by 2,432.37
1 Month
59,643.98
decreased by 683.59
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 27, 2026 at 08:24 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 10, 2005 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 82 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~82 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.6493 | 8.44*** |
| αARCH | 0.1134 | 14.46*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8782 | 103.44*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0035 | 1.72* |
0.992
Persistence82d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6493 | 8.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1134 | 14.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8782 | 103.44*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0035 | 1.72* |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
82 days
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