V-Lab
Immobiliare Grande Distribuzione SIIQ SpA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
47,814.34
decreased by 4,191.85
1 Week
54,479.92
increased by 2,473.73
1 Month
52,357.42
increased by 351.23
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 10, 2005 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 82 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~82 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.6462 | 8.44*** |
| αARCH | 0.1134 | 14.44*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8781 | 103.19*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0033 | 1.58 |
0.992
Persistence82d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6462 | 8.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1134 | 14.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8781 | 103.19*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0033 | 1.58 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
82 days
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