Itau Tempus Fundo De Investimento Imobiliario Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
2,519,976.00
decreased by 2.00
1 Week
2,237,341.80
decreased by 282,636.20
1 Month
1,267,361.14
decreased by 1,252,616.86
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 05:10 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 9, 2023 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 346573 trading days (~1375.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9119 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 1.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -16.8126 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -11.5689 | -0.27 |
| γ3 | 115.4800 | 2.24** |
| γ4 | -204.6315 | -3.96*** |
| γ5 | 214.0937 | 3.59*** |
| γ6 | -111.0579 | -2.66*** |
| γ7 | 60.6035 | 0.78 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
346573 days
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