V-Lab
Town Centre Securities PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
64,418,600.00
decreased by 50,790.00
1 Week
66,260,582.00
increased by 1,791,192.00
1 Month
145,747,291.50
increased by 81,277,901.50
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 06:22 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 15, 1993 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1323 | 3.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3226 | 1.86* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1073 | 1.13 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.3236 | -1.06 |
| γ2 | 0.3884 | 0.87 |
| γ3 | 0.0395 | 0.19 |
| γ4 | 0.2133 | 1.26 |
| γ5 | -0.9125 | -3.86*** |
| γ6 | 0.7015 | 2.38** |
| γ7 | 0.2475 | 1.00 |
| γ8 | -0.7144 | -2.96*** |
| γ9 | 0.6123 | 2.32** |
| γ10 | -0.5006 | -1.49 |
Persistence:
0.430
Half-life:
1 days
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