Skip to main content
V-Lab

Town Centre Securities PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

64,418,600.00

decreased by 50,790.00

1 Week

66,260,582.00

increased by 1,791,192.00

1 Month

145,747,291.50

increased by 81,277,901.50

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 06:22 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Town Centre Securities PLC ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 15, 1993 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1323
3.93***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3226
1.86*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.1073
1.13
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.3236
-1.06
γ20.3884
0.87
γ30.0395
0.19
γ40.2133
1.26
γ5-0.9125
-3.86***
γ60.7015
2.38**
γ70.2475
1.00
γ8-0.7144
-2.96***
γ90.6123
2.32**
γ10-0.5006
-1.49

Persistence:

0.430

Half-life:

1 days