Klepierre Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
486.66
increased by 11.88
1 Week
478.42
increased by 3.64
1 Month
422.61
decreased by 52.17
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 10:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 28, 1991 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 129 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.4249 | 4.27*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0545 | 7.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9401 | 114.07*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0346 | -4.34*** |
| γ2 | 0.0674 | 5.21*** |
| γ3 | -0.0435 | -4.50*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
129 days
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