V-Lab
Klepierre Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
384.96
increased by 25.23
1 Week
366.71
increased by 6.98
1 Month
414.78
increased by 55.05
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 06:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 28, 1991 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 130 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.4223 | 4.27*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0544 | 7.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9403 | 114.43*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0347 | -4.34*** |
| γ2 | 0.0678 | 5.21*** |
| γ3 | -0.0447 | -4.56*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
130 days
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