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V-Lab

ICADE Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

5,313.46

decreased by 387.25

1 Week

5,433.77

decreased by 266.94

1 Month

5,459.78

decreased by 240.93

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 10:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICADE ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 5, 1991 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 35 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.8111
4.35***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1209
14.71***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8593
89.25***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ1-0.4989
-9.96***
γ20.8740
11.62***
γ3-0.4940
-10.10***
γ40.1966
4.61***
γ5-0.0853
-1.95*
γ6-0.0136
-0.22

Persistence:

0.980

Half-life:

35 days