ICADE Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
5,313.46
decreased by 387.25
1 Week
5,433.77
decreased by 266.94
1 Month
5,459.78
decreased by 240.93
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 10:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 5, 1991 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 35 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8111 | 4.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1209 | 14.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8593 | 89.25*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.4989 | -9.96*** |
| γ2 | 0.8740 | 11.62*** |
| γ3 | -0.4940 | -10.10*** |
| γ4 | 0.1966 | 4.61*** |
| γ5 | -0.0853 | -1.95* |
| γ6 | -0.0136 | -0.22 |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
35 days
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