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V-Lab

ICADE Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

4,112.84

decreased by 232.84

1 Week

4,280.40

decreased by 65.28

1 Month

4,493.76

increased by 148.08

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 06:47 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICADE ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 5, 1991 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 35 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.8145
4.35***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1209
14.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8593
89.28***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ1-0.4965
-9.95***
γ20.8705
11.63***
γ3-0.4929
-10.16***
γ40.1964
4.65***
γ5-0.0847
-1.96*
γ6-0.0197
-0.33

Persistence:

0.980

Half-life:

35 days