V-Lab
ICADE Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
4,112.84
decreased by 232.84
1 Week
4,280.40
decreased by 65.28
1 Month
4,493.76
increased by 148.08
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 06:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 5, 1991 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 35 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8145 | 4.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1209 | 14.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8593 | 89.28*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.4965 | -9.95*** |
| γ2 | 0.8705 | 11.63*** |
| γ3 | -0.4929 | -10.16*** |
| γ4 | 0.1964 | 4.65*** |
| γ5 | -0.0847 | -1.96* |
| γ6 | -0.0197 | -0.33 |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
35 days
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