ICADE ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
5,503.68
1 Week
5,594.88
1 Month
5,446.82
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 10:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 5, 1991 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1120 | 0.13 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7467 | 13.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1120 | -0.06 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.16 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2412 | 0.16 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7588 | 2.09** |
Persistence:
0.803
Half-life:
3 days
Other ICADE Analyses
Other ILLIQ-MFMEM Analyses on Real Estate