Gecina SA ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
756.67
1 Week
759.13
1 Month
727.00
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 10:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 28, 1991 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1038 | 1.86* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8392 | 41.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1038 | -0.79 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.6165 | 6.66*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0320 | 3.43*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9672 | 102.28*** |
Persistence:
0.891
Half-life:
6 days
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