V-Lab
Shaftesbury Capital PLC ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
1,950.73
1 Week
2,115.50
1 Month
2,487.98
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 11, 2010 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0762 | 0.67 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8142 | 11.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0762 | -0.27 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 1.65* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0725 | 5.42*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9226 | 8.32*** |
Persistence:
0.852
Half-life:
4 days
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