Shaftesbury Capital PLC Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
2,890.47
decreased by 113.53
1 Week
2,988.03
decreased by 15.97
1 Month
2,792.18
decreased by 211.82
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 04:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 11, 2010 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 905 trading days (~3.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 38% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 4.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0455 | 18.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9450 | 670.70*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0175 | 4.16*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
905 days
Other Shaftesbury Capital PLC Analyses
Other Asymmetric ILLIQ Analyses on Real Estate