Simon Property Group Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
33.81
1 Week
34.30
1 Month
35.26
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 14, 1993 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 9495 trading days (~37.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 71% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1260 | 6.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0380 | 25.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9484 | 914.61*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0269 | 12.57*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
9495 days
Other Simon Property Group Inc Analyses
Other Asymmetric ILLIQ Analyses on Real Estate