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Simon Property Group Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

33.81

decreased by 1.54

1 Week

34.30

decreased by 1.05

1 Month

35.26

decreased by 0.09

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:18 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Simon Property Group Inc ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 14, 1993 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 9495 trading days (~37.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 71% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1260
6.63***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0380
25.27***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9484
914.61***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0269
12.57***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

9495 days