V-Lab
Simon Property Group Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
33.29
1 Week
32.70
1 Month
29.74
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 14, 1993 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 17328 trading days (~68.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 71% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1288 | 6.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0380 | 25.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9485 | 919.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0270 | 12.72*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
17328 days
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