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Simon Property Group Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

33.29

decreased by 0.51

1 Week

32.70

decreased by 1.10

1 Month

29.74

decreased by 4.06

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:25 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Simon Property Group Inc ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 14, 1993 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 17328 trading days (~68.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 71% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1288
6.50***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0380
25.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9485
919.08***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0270
12.72***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

17328 days