V-Lab
Warehouses De Pauw CVA Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
1,150.57
increased by 3.97
1 Week
1,149.02
increased by 2.42
1 Month
1,139.12
decreased by 7.48
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 06:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 25, 1999 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1853 | 1.76* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0387 | 11.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9598 | 471.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0029 | 0.71 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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