V-Lab
Warehouses De Pauw CVA Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
1,088.30
1 Week
1,119.35
1 Month
1,090.59
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 06:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 25, 1999 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1085 | 0.42 |
| αARCH | 0.0387 | 3.00*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9599 | 118.29*** |
| γleverage | 0.0028 | 0.17 |
1.000
Persistence1386294d
Half-lifeILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1085 | 0.42 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0387 | 3.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9599 | 118.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0028 | 0.17 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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