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V-Lab

Covivio Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

1,461.00

decreased by 22.48

1 Week

1,552.68

increased by 69.20

1 Month

1,597.76

increased by 114.28

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 10:48 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Covivio ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 8, 1995 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 3026 trading days (~12.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 110% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.9941
4.14***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0362
19.63***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9438
694.97***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0397
9.51***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

3026 days