Covivio Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
1,461.00
decreased by 22.48
1 Week
1,552.68
increased by 69.20
1 Month
1,597.76
increased by 114.28
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 10:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 8, 1995 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 3026 trading days (~12.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 110% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.9941 | 4.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0362 | 19.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9438 | 694.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0397 | 9.51*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
3026 days
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