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V-Lab

Covivio Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

1,222.08

decreased by 69.78

1 Week

1,324.53

increased by 32.67

1 Month

1,353.18

increased by 61.32

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 06:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Covivio ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 8, 1995 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 2846 trading days (~11.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 109% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.8608
4.13***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0362
19.64***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9438
695.48***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0396
9.49***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

2846 days