Covivio ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
1,396.66
1 Week
1,423.14
1 Month
1,563.07
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 10:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 8, 1995 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1111 | 0.64 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7177 | 11.00*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1111 | -0.29 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 4.9645 | 0.97 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0813 | 0.89 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9157 | 20.38*** |
Persistence:
0.773
Half-life:
3 days
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