V-Lab
FII Vida Nova ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
161,909,500.00
1 Week
161,453,820.00
1 Month
121,423,872.00
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 07:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 4, 2015 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1566 trading days (~6.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1452 | 44.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8539 | 461.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0010 | 0.27 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 169,429,400.0000 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1566 days
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