V-Lab
FII Vida Nova Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
178,460,700.00
decreased by 32,062,800.00
1 Week
176,919,500.00
decreased by 33,604,000.00
1 Month
152,413,443.00
decreased by 58,110,057.00
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 07:01 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 4, 2015 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.4288 | 2.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1835 | 6.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6993 | 15.78*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -5.1688 | -3.17*** |
| γ2 | 10.5246 | 4.54*** |
| γ3 | -7.2490 | -5.35*** |
| γ4 | 2.3973 | 2.51** |
| γ5 | 0.5097 | 0.51 |
| γ6 | -2.0045 | -1.66* |
| γ7 | 4.8681 | 2.61*** |
Persistence:
0.883
Half-life:
6 days
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