V-Lab
First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
292.97
increased by 27.42
1 Week
262.30
decreased by 3.25
1 Month
282.13
increased by 16.58
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 30, 1994 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 345 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9873 | 5.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0881 | 7.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9099 | 70.96*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0499 | -1.58 |
| γ2 | -0.0093 | -0.11 |
| γ3 | 0.2648 | 1.05 |
| γ4 | -0.5435 | -1.10 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
345 days
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