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First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

292.97

increased by 27.42

1 Week

262.30

decreased by 3.25

1 Month

282.13

increased by 16.58

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 30, 1994 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 345 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.9873
5.59***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0881
7.49***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9099
70.96***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ1-0.0499
-1.58
γ2-0.0093
-0.11
γ30.2648
1.05
γ4-0.5435
-1.10

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

345 days