V-Lab
Wereldhave NV Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
5,484.01
increased by 485.49
1 Week
5,092.41
increased by 93.89
1 Month
4,862.90
decreased by 135.62
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 47 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4388 | 3.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0789 | 9.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9063 | 88.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.4552 | -4.58*** |
| γ2 | 0.7634 | 4.45*** |
| γ3 | -0.4406 | -3.14*** |
| γ4 | 0.1115 | 1.16 |
| γ5 | 0.0706 | 1.15 |
| γ6 | -0.0225 | -0.42 |
| γ7 | -0.0976 | -2.09** |
| γ8 | 0.2157 | 5.13*** |
| γ9 | -0.2537 | -5.77*** |
| γ10 | 0.0826 | 1.25 |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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