Wereldhave NV Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
4,204.26
decreased by 306.05
1 Week
4,738.46
increased by 228.15
1 Month
5,085.51
increased by 575.20
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 02:41 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 47 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4355 | 3.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0790 | 9.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9063 | 88.60*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.4569 | -4.58*** |
| γ2 | 0.7656 | 4.46*** |
| γ3 | -0.4406 | -3.14*** |
| γ4 | 0.1102 | 1.16 |
| γ5 | 0.0713 | 1.16 |
| γ6 | -0.0217 | -0.40 |
| γ7 | -0.0990 | -2.10** |
| γ8 | 0.2154 | 5.08*** |
| γ9 | -0.2484 | -5.55*** |
| γ10 | 0.0671 | 0.97 |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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