V-Lab
Wereldhave NV Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
5,923.89
decreased by 68.83
1 Week
6,026.25
increased by 33.53
1 Month
5,314.54
decreased by 678.18
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 12:53 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~99021 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4984 | 1.33 |
| αARCH | 0.0663 | 0.17 |
| βGARCH | 0.9337 | 2.42** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0383 | -0.11 |
| γ2 | 0.0723 | 0.12 |
1.000
Persistence99021d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4984 | 1.33 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0663 | 0.17 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9337 | 2.42** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0383 | -0.11 |
| γ2 | 0.0723 | 0.12 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
99021 days
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