V-Lab
Macerich Co/The Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
197.43
decreased by 8.20
1 Week
215.04
increased by 9.41
1 Month
216.09
increased by 10.46
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 10, 1994 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 77016 trading days (~305.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1626 | 4.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0740 | 5.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9260 | 73.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0198 | -0.86 |
| γ2 | 0.0290 | 1.11 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
77016 days
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