Shaftesbury Capital PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
2,933.01
decreased by 122.79
1 Week
3,026.85
decreased by 28.95
1 Month
2,846.72
decreased by 209.08
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 04:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 11, 2010 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 216 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1853 | 6.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0548 | 9.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9420 | 156.58*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0038 | -0.84 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
216 days
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