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Shaftesbury Capital PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, October 27th, 2026

1 Day

2,832.25

increased by 181.93

1 Week

2,759.93

increased by 109.61

1 Month

2,903.34

increased by 253.02

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 27, 2026 at 09:36 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/26/2024

to

10/26/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Shaftesbury Capital PLC ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 11, 2010 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 207 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~207 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1838
6.54***
αARCH0.0554
9.45***
βGARCH0.9413
156.67***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0040
-0.91

0.997

Persistence

207d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1838
6.54***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0554
9.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9413
156.67***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0040
-0.91

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

207 days