V-Lab
Shaftesbury Capital PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
1,972.19
decreased by 78.58
1 Week
2,133.25
increased by 82.48
1 Month
2,555.40
increased by 504.63
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 11, 2010 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 217 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1772 | 6.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0554 | 9.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9414 | 155.63*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0048 | -1.02 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
217 days
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