V-Lab
Shaftesbury Capital PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
2,639.18
decreased by 137.44
1 Week
2,815.56
increased by 38.94
1 Month
2,346.13
decreased by 430.49
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 03:15 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 11, 2010 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 209 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~209 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1832 | 6.53*** |
| αARCH | 0.0555 | 9.42*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9411 | 155.77*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0041 | -0.91 |
0.997
Persistence209d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1832 | 6.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0555 | 9.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9411 | 155.77*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0041 | -0.91 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
209 days
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