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Shaftesbury Capital PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

2,639.18

decreased by 137.44

1 Week

2,815.56

increased by 38.94

1 Month

2,346.13

decreased by 430.49

Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 03:15 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Shaftesbury Capital PLC ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 11, 2010 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 209 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~209 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1832
6.53***
αARCH0.0555
9.42***
βGARCH0.9411
155.77***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0041
-0.91

0.997

Persistence

209d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1832
6.53***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0555
9.42***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9411
155.77***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0041
-0.91

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

209 days