Shaftesbury Capital PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, October 27th, 2026
1 Day
2,832.25
increased by 181.93
1 Week
2,759.93
increased by 109.61
1 Month
2,903.34
increased by 253.02
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 27, 2026 at 09:36 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 11, 2010 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 207 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~207 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1838 | 6.54*** |
| αARCH | 0.0554 | 9.45*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9413 | 156.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0040 | -0.91 |
0.997
Persistence207d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1838 | 6.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0554 | 9.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9413 | 156.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0040 | -0.91 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
207 days
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