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V-Lab

Mercialys SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

5,248.14

increased by 306.48

1 Week

5,435.62

increased by 493.96

1 Month

5,356.49

increased by 414.83

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 10:55 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Mercialys SA ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 11, 2005 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 40 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.2951
8.93***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0808
10.02***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9019
88.64***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0031
2.27**

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

40 days