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V-Lab

Mercialys SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

4,747.34

increased by 383.70

1 Week

4,313.87

decreased by 49.77

1 Month

4,577.57

increased by 213.93

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 06:47 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Mercialys SA ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 11, 2005 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 41 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.2557
8.88***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0807
10.07***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9025
89.59***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0028
2.02**

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days