Mercialys SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
5,248.14
increased by 306.48
1 Week
5,435.62
increased by 493.96
1 Month
5,356.49
increased by 414.83
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 10:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 11, 2005 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 40 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.2951 | 8.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0808 | 10.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9019 | 88.64*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0031 | 2.27** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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