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V-Lab

Mercialys SA ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

4,928.60

increased by 304.57

1 Week

5,114.36

increased by 490.33

1 Month

5,065.06

increased by 441.03

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 10:54 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Mercialys SA ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 11, 2005 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0782
2.19**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8794
79.26***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0782
-0.91
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

9.5461
5.73***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0217
3.17***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9752
111.02***

Persistence:

0.919

Half-life:

8 days