Mercialys SA ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
4,928.60
1 Week
5,114.36
1 Month
5,065.06
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 10:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 11, 2005 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0782 | 2.19** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8794 | 79.26*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0782 | -0.91 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 9.5461 | 5.73*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0217 | 3.17*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9752 | 111.02*** |
Persistence:
0.919
Half-life:
8 days
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