V-Lab
Covivio Hotels SACA ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
1,036,554.00
1 Week
1,197,993.40
1 Month
1,022,101.20
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 06:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 30, 1996 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1549 | 1.55 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7826 | 56.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1549 | -0.70 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.11 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0587 | 2.06** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9413 | 54.99*** |
Persistence:
0.860
Half-life:
5 days
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