Derwent London PLC ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
1,970.34
1 Week
2,141.33
1 Month
2,215.68
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 03:38 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 9, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0698 | 0.77 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6966 | 14.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0698 | -0.32 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.05 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.6109 | 0.73 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.3891 | 2.76*** |
Persistence:
0.732
Half-life:
2 days
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