V-Lab
First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
386.62
1 Week
358.02
1 Month
380.53
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 30, 1994 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 24 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 24 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0949 | 6.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9166 | 454.91*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0795 | -4.71*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.03 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.04 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9983 | 3,683.62*** |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
24 days
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