How volatility evolves over time

How illiquidity evolves over time

{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
mwindow	76
αARCH	0.0813	10.84***
βGARCH	0.8711	69.90***
γleverage	-0.0813	-5.87***
λ₁tau intercept	0.3796	0.02
λ₂forecast adj.	0.1570	5.55***
λ₃tau persistence	0.8418	30.21***

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	76
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.0813	10.84***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.8711	69.90***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	-0.0813	-5.87***
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	0.3796	0.02
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.1570	5.55***
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.8418	30.21***

V-Lab

Saul Centers Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Illiquidity Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other Saul Centers Inc Analyses