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V-Lab

Saul Centers Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

4,116.43

increased by 133.09

1 Week

4,311.95

increased by 328.61

1 Month

4,042.15

increased by 58.81

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:15 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Saul Centers Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 19, 1993 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 30 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.7974
10.60***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0825
12.08***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8944
100.37***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ1-0.0267
-8.83***
γ20.0445
9.70***
γ3-0.0294
-7.60***

Persistence:

0.977

Half-life:

30 days