V-Lab
Saul Centers Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
4,116.43
increased by 133.09
1 Week
4,311.95
increased by 328.61
1 Month
4,042.15
increased by 58.81
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 19, 1993 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 30 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7974 | 10.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0825 | 12.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8944 | 100.37*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0267 | -8.83*** |
| γ2 | 0.0445 | 9.70*** |
| γ3 | -0.0294 | -7.60*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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