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Saul Centers Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

3,897.83

increased by 57.94

1 Week

4,096.33

increased by 256.44

1 Month

3,735.16

decreased by 104.73

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:15 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Saul Centers Inc ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 19, 1993 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 22% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
1.37
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0595
28.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9341
763.76***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0128
3.52***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-