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Macerich Co/The Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

268.92

decreased by 12.14

1 Week

273.14

decreased by 7.92

1 Month

266.72

decreased by 14.34

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Macerich Co/The ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 10, 1994 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 42% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8465
6.54***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0560
33.19***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9322
741.63***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0236
8.48***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-