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Macerich Co/The Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

200.42

decreased by 8.63

1 Week

217.30

increased by 8.25

1 Month

211.80

increased by 2.75

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:21 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Macerich Co/The ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 10, 1994 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 43% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8762
6.44***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0560
33.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9319
739.00***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0242
8.65***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-