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Sinpas Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi AS Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

267.32

decreased by 28.67

1 Week

292.28

decreased by 3.71

1 Month

299.18

increased by 3.19

Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 03:52 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Sinpas Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi AS ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 22, 2007 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 60% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000 ≥ 1, shocks do not decayAsymmetry: Illiquidity rises 60% more after negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst4.6390
3.70***
αARCH0.1105
5.85***
βGARCH0.8566
91.54***
γleverage0.0659
2.38**

1.000

Persistence

-

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.6390
3.70***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1105
5.85***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8566
91.54***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0659
2.38**

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-