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First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, October 28th, 2026

1 Day

350.19

decreased by 17.21

1 Week

360.27

decreased by 7.13

1 Month

399.98

increased by 32.58

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 09:18 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/27/2024

to

10/27/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 30, 1994 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 163% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000 ≥ 1, shocks do not decayAsymmetry: Illiquidity rises 163% more after negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.0000
0.65
αARCH0.0361
4.39***
βGARCH0.9345
154.28***
γleverage0.0589
2.71***

1.000

Persistence

-

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.65
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0361
4.39***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9345
154.28***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0589
2.71***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-