V-Lab
Apartment Investment & Management Co Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
4,666.34
increased by 250.13
1 Week
4,402.53
decreased by 13.68
1 Month
3,877.67
decreased by 538.54
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 22, 1994 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000 ≥ 1, shocks do not decay
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7677 | |
| αARCH | 0.0677 | |
| βGARCH | 0.9323 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0192 |
1.000
Persistence-
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7677 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0677 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9323 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0192 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
-
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