Apartment Investment & Management Co Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, October 28th, 2026
1 Day
4,094.74
decreased by 59.29
1 Week
4,423.12
increased by 269.09
1 Month
4,506.55
increased by 352.52
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 27, 2026 at 10:21 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 22, 1994 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~693147 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0904 | 1.47 |
| αARCH | 0.0765 | 0.10 |
| βGARCH | 0.9235 | 1.23 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0140 | 0.29 |
1.000
Persistence693147d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0904 | 1.47 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0765 | 0.10 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9235 | 1.23 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0140 | 0.29 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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