V-Lab
Eurocommercial Properties NV Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
5,209.73
increased by 910.73
1 Week
4,448.60
increased by 149.60
1 Month
4,437.19
increased by 138.19
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 21, 1991 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 22 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.0743 | 3.27*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0831 | 6.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8853 | 49.27*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.2360 | -2.12** |
| γ2 | 0.4563 | 2.67*** |
| γ3 | -0.3949 | -3.89*** |
| γ4 | 0.2563 | 3.30*** |
| γ5 | -0.0575 | -0.95 |
| γ6 | -0.0251 | -0.56 |
| γ7 | -0.0351 | -0.91 |
| γ8 | 0.1367 | 3.76*** |
| γ9 | -0.1801 | -5.00*** |
| γ10 | 0.0275 | 0.50 |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
22 days
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