ESR-REIT Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
5,111.16
decreased by 276.84
1 Week
5,226.22
decreased by 161.78
1 Month
4,566.87
decreased by 821.13
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 02:45 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 4, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9839 | 4.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0921 | 6.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8691 | 43.57*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.2359 | -4.92*** |
| γ2 | 0.3814 | 5.60*** |
| γ3 | -0.2593 | -6.16*** |
| γ4 | 0.2024 | 5.43*** |
| γ5 | -0.1689 | -3.53*** |
Persistence:
0.961
Half-life:
18 days
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