V-Lab
ESR-REIT Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
3,925.23
increased by 34.23
1 Week
4,174.33
increased by 283.33
1 Month
4,937.79
increased by 1,046.79
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 12:55 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 4, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 17 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9887 | 4.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0922 | 6.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8687 | 43.47*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.2332 | -4.93*** |
| γ2 | 0.3774 | 5.62*** |
| γ3 | -0.2580 | -6.19*** |
| γ4 | 0.2036 | 5.48*** |
| γ5 | -0.1748 | -3.64*** |
Persistence:
0.961
Half-life:
17 days
Other ESR-REIT Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on Real Estate