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V-Lab

ESR-REIT Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

5,111.16

decreased by 276.84

1 Week

5,226.22

decreased by 161.78

1 Month

4,566.87

decreased by 821.13

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 02:45 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ESR-REIT ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 4, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9839
4.87***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0921
6.54***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8691
43.57***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ1-0.2359
-4.92***
γ20.3814
5.60***
γ3-0.2593
-6.16***
γ40.2024
5.43***
γ5-0.1689
-3.53***

Persistence:

0.961

Half-life:

18 days