V-Lab
ESR-REIT ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
4,464.50
1 Week
4,691.36
1 Month
5,340.24
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 12:55 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 4, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1174 | 0.68 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7732 | 25.11*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1174 | -0.32 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 1.34 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0673 | 1.37 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9322 | 18.13*** |
Persistence:
0.832
Half-life:
4 days
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