ESR-REIT ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
5,395.77
1 Week
5,624.48
1 Month
5,124.53
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 02:45 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 4, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1176 | 0.68 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7730 | 25.06*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1176 | -0.32 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 1.34 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0676 | 1.37 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9320 | 18.02*** |
Persistence:
0.832
Half-life:
4 days
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