Plural Logistica Fii Classe Un Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, June 16th, 2026
1 Day
913,261.70
unchanged at 0.00
1 Week
964,453.04
increased by 51,191.34
1 Month
1,287,364.17
increased by 374,102.47
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, June 16, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 17, 2021 to Jun 12, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5877 | 1.98** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9551 | 13.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -6.8433 | -0.93 |
| γ2 | 8.0418 | 0.74 |
| γ3 | -7.7201 | -1.05 |
| γ4 | 15.4671 | 2.58*** |
| γ5 | -11.5443 | -2.32** |
| γ6 | 0.3234 | 0.06 |
| γ7 | 14.9687 | 2.15** |
| γ8 | -35.6265 | -2.27** |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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