V-Lab
Covivio Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
1,179.79
decreased by 77.87
1 Week
1,306.10
increased by 48.44
1 Month
1,375.97
increased by 118.31
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 06:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 8, 1995 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 173286 trading days (~687.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2469 | 3.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0645 | 0.48 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9355 | 6.90*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0149 | -0.06 |
| γ2 | 0.0267 | 0.09 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
173286 days
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