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V-Lab

Covivio Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

1,033.56

decreased by 42.11

1 Week

1,134.78

increased by 59.11

1 Month

1,290.66

increased by 214.99

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 08:14 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Covivio ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 8, 1995 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 44 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.7000
5.21***
αARCH0.0763
10.92***
βGARCH0.9079
111.44***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ1-0.2939
-11.79***
γ20.5213
14.86***
γ3-0.3168
-15.71***
γ40.1700
9.22***
γ5-0.1686
-6.70***

0.984

Persistence

44d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.7000
5.21***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0763
10.92***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9079
111.44***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ1-0.2939
-11.79***
γ20.5213
14.86***
γ3-0.3168
-15.71***
γ40.1700
9.22***
γ5-0.1686
-6.70***

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

44 days