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V-Lab

Covivio Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

1,368.18

increased by 22.23

1 Week

1,434.30

increased by 88.35

1 Month

1,484.17

increased by 138.22

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 10:49 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Covivio ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 8, 1995 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 37 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.6236
4.69***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0779
10.95***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9038
104.19***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-0.3429
-4.21***
γ20.1888
1.35
γ30.5660
4.87***
γ4-0.5722
-6.89***
γ50.1514
2.78***
γ60.1038
2.19**
γ7-0.1340
-2.63***
γ8-0.0223
-0.29

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

37 days