V-Lab
Covivio Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
1,033.56
decreased by 42.11
1 Week
1,134.78
increased by 59.11
1 Month
1,290.66
increased by 214.99
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 08:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 8, 1995 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 44 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.7000 | 5.21*** |
| αARCH | 0.0763 | 10.92*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9079 | 111.44*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.2939 | -11.79*** |
| γ2 | 0.5213 | 14.86*** |
| γ3 | -0.3168 | -15.71*** |
| γ4 | 0.1700 | 9.22*** |
| γ5 | -0.1686 | -6.70*** |
0.984
Persistence44d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7000 | 5.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0763 | 10.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9079 | 111.44*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.2939 | -11.79*** |
| γ2 | 0.5213 | 14.86*** |
| γ3 | -0.3168 | -15.71*** |
| γ4 | 0.1700 | 9.22*** |
| γ5 | -0.1686 | -6.70*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
44 days
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