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AvalonBay Communities Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

99.53

increased by 2.20

1 Week

93.10

decreased by 4.23

1 Month

77.05

decreased by 20.28

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:14 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of AvalonBay Communities Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 11, 1994 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8699
4.74***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0564
11.32***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9436
189.67***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0030
0.12
γ2-0.0001
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

99021 days