V-Lab
AvalonBay Communities Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
99.53
increased by 2.20
1 Week
93.10
decreased by 4.23
1 Month
77.05
decreased by 20.28
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 11, 1994 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8699 | 4.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0564 | 11.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9436 | 189.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0030 | 0.12 |
| γ2 | -0.0001 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
99021 days
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